Regression Discontinuity Designs In Economics Video

Motivation

• Regression discontinuity (Thistlethwaite and Campbell (1960)) is a conceptually simple way to leverage a common situation in real data
• Treatment assignment is not haphazard or random but instead follows a strict and simple rule
• Bureaucracies, institutions, algorithms allocating a discrete resource systematically may make decision by a well-defined threshold
  • Admission by standardized tests, Election by majority vote, Program eligibility by cutoff in income, assets, age, Drug recommendation by checklist (blood pressure, metabolites, etc)
• Key to using such thresholds is idea that they may be in some sense arbitrary
  • Criterion in rule usually based on something specifically chosen to be relevant to the outcome: blood pressure and drug effectiveness, test score and school performance, vote share and politician quality
  • But the exact level of threshold is less meaningful
• Discrete nature of treatment (by simplicity or necessity) turns infinitesimal differences between units into large changes in treatment
• This contrast between small changes in unit attributes and big changes in treatment, makes units on either side "close to" comparable
• Requires assumptions on outcome process, but fairly weak ones
  • Just that "small" changes in assignment variable do not lead to "big" differences in units that would make them comparable except for treatment
• Formalizing "small" and "big" is major practical challenge in using these methods
  • Applicability and form of analysis depends on quantifying these notions
• Statistical literature buries substantive assumptions about relative size and shape of effects in technical conditions and default behavior of easy-to-use software
  • Not their fault: need for precision requires jargon and mathematics, and defaults are sensible choices for typical social science applications
  • But you should know what you're doing and why, and actively interrogate and test assumptions

Problem Setup: (Sharp) Regression Discontinuity

• Goal is (a) causal effect of binary treatment \(X\) on outcome \(Y\)
• Treatment assignment determined by a deterministic rule
• Continuous variable \(R\) determines treatment \(X\): called running variable or assignment variable
• Units with \(R\geq c\) get treatment \(X=1\), units with \(R<c\) don't \(X=0\)
  • Assignment rule \(X=1\{R\geq c\}\)
• Assume, as usual, causal consistency: \(Y=Y^1X+Y^0(1-X)\)
• By the assignment rule, \((Y^1,Y^0)\perp X|R\), trivially since conditional on \(R\), \(X\) is constant and so is independent of any other variable
  
• But by deterministic rule, also case that \(P(X=1|R=r)\) is 0 or 1 for all \(w\)
  • We cannot use \(R\) to identify effect by adjustment: overlap fails by construction
• Additional assumption that will allow identification: continuity of conditional potential outcomes as functions of \(R\) at \(c\)
  • \(\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y^1|R=c+e]=E[Y^1|R=c]\), \(\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y|R=c-e]\)
  • Stronger versions possible, eg continuity of \(F(Y^1|R=r)\), \(F(Y^0|R=r)\)
• Regression discontinuity \(\tau^{RD}:=\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y|R=c+e]-\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y|R=c-e]\)

Identification

• Under consistency, assignment rule, and continuity of potential outcomes
  • \(\tau^{RD}:=E[Y^1-Y^0|R=c]\) Local Average Treatment Effect at the threshold
• Proof:
  • \(E[Y|R=r]=E[Y^1|R=r]1\{r\geq c\}+E[Y^0|R=r]1\{r<c\}\) (consistency and assignment rule) so
  • \(\tau^{RD}=\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y^1|R=c+e]-\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y^0|R=c-e]\)
  • \(=E[Y^1|R=c]-E[Y^0|R=c]\) (continuity)
• Lee and Lemieux (2010) show visually

Illustration of continuity argument

Intuition

• Estimated quantity is a treatment effect only conditional on being at the cutoff: marginal units only
  • May or may not be representative of effect at other levels of \(R\): patients just barely sick enough to get drug, etc
  • Because conditioning group observable, can at least identify them and their attributes to see how they differ from other units
• Continuity says structural equation for \(Y\) can depend on running variable, either directly or indirectly through associated confounders
  • But magnitude of effects, at least locally near the cutoff, can't jump in the way treatment does
• Bound on the degree of change in the outcome for small changes in \(R\)
  • Maybe biological mechanisms via which metabolite associated with disease severity involve proportionate changes
• Especially reasonable when running variable is noisy or imperfect proxy for causally meaningful effects
  • Test scores proxy for academic ability, but 1 point difference mostly noise, and in any case "real" ability difference probably not large enough to be meaningful
• Unreasonable when other things change discontinuously at cutoff
  • Administrative borders: lots of laws, regulations, taxes change as soon as you enter an administrative unit
• A common reason for discontinuous changes at cutoff is that existence of cutoff itself influences behavior discontinuously
  • If people can control their \(R\), and they care about whether they are treated, they might do so
  • To extent that preferences or ability to do this are heterogeneous, manipulation may induce differences in \(Y^x\) on different sides of the jump
  • This makes discontinuities in, e.g. tax and welfare code, likely a bad fit for RD (though manipulation may itself be informative)
• If manipulation is imprecise, maybe not a problem: suppose units can only choose \(r^*\) but \(R=r^*+\epsilon\) for continuously distributed independent \(\epsilon\)
  • Then \(E[Y^x|R=r]=\int\int y^xf(y^x|R=r,\epsilon=e)dy^xf_\epsilon(e)de=\int\int y^xf(y^x|r^*=u)f_\epsilon(r-u)dy^xdu\) which can be continuous in \(r\) even if \(f(y^x|r^*=u)\) is discontinuous
  • E.g., if people can study for a test, but not learn answers exactly, still preserve continuity (though this does affect properties of marginal group)

Aside: Local randomization

• Sometimes see RD model/method analyzed and described in terms of "local randomization" (Cattaneo, Frandsen, and Titiunik (2015))
• Near cutoff, whether you are on one side or another is "effectively random" and you can treat data "as if" an experiment near the cutoff
• Formalization: \(Y^{x,r}=Y^{x}\) for \(r\in [\underline{c},\bar{c}]\) \(\underline{c}<c<\bar{c}\) and \(R\perp(Y^0,Y^1)|R\in [\underline{c},\bar{c}]\)
• In this situation, no effect of or association of running variable with outcomes in a window
• This is much stronger assumption than continuity
  • Asks for potential outcomes functions to be exactly flat near the cutoff
  • Maybe plausible if assignment rule based on variable not at all important to outcome
• Aside from deliberate random assignment, I struggle to think of cases where applicable
  • But if you do have that, rdlocrand implements Fisher-style tests

Estimation: Local regression

• Continuity is fairly weak notion formalizing small changes in \(R\) leading to small changes in \(Y^x\)
  • For every \(\epsilon>0\), \(\exists \delta>0\) s.t. \(d(r,c)<\delta\implies d(E[Y^x|R=r],E[Y^x|R=c])<\epsilon\)
• So, to get \(2\epsilon\)-accurate estimate of \(\tau^{RD}\), estimate conditional expectation functions for \(r\) within \(\delta\)
• Simple implementation is to take window of width \(\delta\) and estimate expectations by conditional means
  • \(\widehat{\beta}_0^{-}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}Y_i1\{c-\delta<R_i<c\}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}1\{c-\delta<R_i<c\}}\), \(\widehat{\beta}_0^{+}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}Y_i1\{c\leq R_i<c+\delta\}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}1\{c\leq R_i<c+\delta\}}\)
  • \(\widehat{\tau}^{RD}=\widehat{\beta}^{+}_0-\widehat{\beta}^{-}_0\)
• By law of large numbers and continuity (so long as density in region \(>0\)), holding fixed \(\delta\),
  • \(\widehat{\beta}_0^{-}\overset{p}{\to}\int E[Y|R=r]f(R=r|c-\delta<R<c)dr\in[E[Y^0|R=c]-\epsilon,E[Y^0|R=c]+\epsilon]\)
  • Likewise for \(\widehat{\beta}_0^{+}\), so \(\text{plim }\widehat{\tau}^{RD}\) is in \(E[Y^1-Y^0|R=c]\pm2\epsilon\)
• This gets called the local constant or Nadaraya-Watson estimator
• Not bad: for any \(\epsilon\), we have estimator that converges to something \(2\epsilon\) close to true effect
• Problem 1: continuity doesn't tell us anything about \(\delta\) we need
  • Solution: need stronger conditions quantifying \(\delta\): differentiability, smoothness
• Problem 2: would like to converge to exact value
  • Solution: shrink \(\delta\) with sample size so that bias disappears
• Issue of what to assume about local response of conditional mean, and based on it, how much to shrink window, is main source of difficulty

Estimation: Parametric Models

• What we actually need is an estimate of the conditional expectation function at a point
  • We can get this from any consistent estimator
• OLS consistent, unbiased estimate of a conditional expectation function if correctly specified
  • \(y=\beta_0+\tau1\{R\geq c\} + \beta_1 R_i +u\): additive effect of treatment, linear in running variable
  • \(y=\beta_0+\tau1\{R\geq c\} + \beta_1 (R_i-c)1\{R< c\}+\beta_2(R_i-c)1\{R\geq c\} +u\): additive effect of treatment, linear in running variable with different slopes
• Problem with this is that if incorrectly specified, all you get is best linear predictor
  • Average is with respect to integrated mean squared error over entire distribution of \(R_i\)
  • Goal is estimate of \(\tau\), but estimator adjusts slope to get smaller errors in regions far away
  • Helpful to use this information if global shape known, as you can extrapolate from data anywhere in sample
  • But still optimizes the wrong criterion for prediction at a point
• Early attempts to solve this suggested adding polynomials to make shape more flexible and reduce bias
  • This is no longer recommended (Gelman and Imbens (2019)) due to potential to magnify bias
• With improved methods, parametric RD mainly relegated to situations where some nonstandard aspect of the analysis makes calculations with local methods difficult

A happy medium: Local Polynomials

• The tried and true estimator for nonparametric RD
  • Classical, easily interpretable, well-studied
• Idea: to estimate function near a point, use function estimation methods, but use only data near that point
• Choose a window around \(x\) and run (weighted) regression in that window
• Account for slope and curvature and extrapolate locally by using polynomial of order \(p\)
  • \(p=0\) is local constant, \(p=1\) is local linear, \(p=2\) is local quadratic
  • \(p=1\) most common choice for RD, default in a lot of software
• Let \(K(u)\) be a kernel function weighting points within window
  • Boxcar/Uniform: \(K(u)=1\{|u|\leq1\}\), Triangular: \(K(u)=\max\{0,(1-|u|)\}\), Epanechnikov: \(K(u)=\max\{0,\frac{3}{4}(1-u^2)\}\)
• Choose how spread out to make the average by adjusting bandwidth \(h\)
• (One-sided) local polynomial regression estimators of order \(p\) with bandwidth \(h\)
  • \(\widehat{\beta}^{-}(r):=(\widehat{\beta}^{-}_0(r),\hat{\beta}^{-}_1(r),\ldots)=\underset{(\beta_0,\beta_1)}{\arg\min}\sum_{i=1}^{n}1\{R_i<c\}K(\frac{R_i-r}{h})(Y_i-\sum_{j=1}^{p}\beta_j(R_i-r)^j)^2\)
  • \(\widehat{\beta}^{+}(r):=(\widehat{\beta}^{+}_0(r),\hat{\beta}^{+}_1(r),\ldots)=\underset{(\beta_0,\beta_1)}{\arg\min}\sum_{i=1}^{n}1\{R_i\geq c\}K(\frac{R_i-r}{h})(Y_i-\sum_{j=1}^{p}\beta_j(R_i-r)^j)^2\)
  • \(\widehat{\tau}^{RD}=\widehat{\beta}^{+}_0(c)-\widehat{\beta}^{-}_0(c)\)
• With uniform kernel, this is just regression in a window

Tuning parameters

• bandwidth \(h\), kernel \(k(.)\), polynomial order \(p\)
  • Hard part is how to pick these and why
• Various concerns, assumptions, tradeoffs make this difficult and context-dependent
• Plenty of work on "optimal" choices, all of which uses different criteria and makes different assumptions
• You have to decide which assumptions and goals are relevant to your setting
• Statistical criteria (bias, variance, coverage, interval width, robustness, etc) well-quantified
• You also want your work to be transparent, impactful, trusted, and trustworthy
• Visualization is crucial: plot should allow users to assess results and their quality
• Possibility of specification search favors methods which are conventional
  • Using "default" methods whenever possible: RD software often has fairly reasonable choices implemented, even if not exactly the ones you would have made
  • Have clear and convincing explanations for modifications to defaults based on features of your setting
  • Display results under range of plausible choices to demonstrate robustness

Analysis: Rates

• An assumption under which local polynomial estimators are a good choice is differentiability
  • More specifically, the quality of approximation of a Taylor expansion of order \(p\)
• Heuristic argument: consider local linear regression with uniform kernel and bandwidth \(h\)
• Assume \(E[Y|R=r]\) is twice differentiable with second derivative bounded
  • Taylor expansion is then \(E[Y|R=r]=f(r)=f(c)+f^\prime(c)(r-c)+\frac{1}{2}f^{\prime\prime}(\tilde{r})(r-c)^2\) and \(Y_i=f(R_i)+u_i\)
    
• Normalizing \(c=0\) and letting \(\vec{R}_i=(1,R_i,...,R_i^p)\)
  • \(\widehat{\beta}_0(r)=e_1^\prime(\sum_{i=1}^{n}K(\frac{R_i}{h})\vec{R}_i\vec{R}_i^\prime)^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}K(\frac{R_i}{h})\vec{R}_iY_i\) \(=\sum_{i=1}^{n}w(R_i,h)Y_i\) linear combination for some weight that doesn't depend on \(Y\)
• \(E[E[\widehat{\beta}_0(0)|R]]-E[Y|R=0]=\frac{1}{2}E[\sum_{i=1}^{n}w(R_i,h)[f^{\prime\prime}(\tilde{R}_i)-f^{\prime\prime}(\tilde{r})]r^2]\leq Ch^2\)
  • Because OLS is unbiased for linear functions and second derivatives and weights are bounded
• By uniform kernel and bandwidth \(h\), density of \(R\) bounded above and below in neighborhood of 0, number of observations given non-zero weight is proportional to \(nh\)
  • Since OLS has variance proportional to inverse of sample size, variance is proportional to \(\frac{1}{nh}\)
    
• Mean squared error of estimate \(E[\widehat{\beta}_0(0)-E[Y|R=0])^2]=\) \(\text{Bias}(\widehat{\beta}_0(0))^2+Var(\widehat{\beta}_0(0))\) \(\propto h^4+\frac{1}{nh}\)
• Taking FOC to minimize yields \(h\propto n^{-1/5}\) and MSE \(\propto n^{-4/5}\): proportionality depends on kernel choice, \(R\) distribution, smoothness bound
  • Compare to correctly specified OLS, bias 0, variance = MSE \(\propto n^{-1}\)
• Can show this is optimal minimax rate for Hölder class \(\Lambda^2(C)\) of functions with bounded second derivatives (Tsybakov (2009))
  • \(\underset{\widehat{f}}{\inf}\underset{f\in\Lambda^2(C)}{\sup}MSE(\widehat{f},f)\propto n^{-4/5}\), so estimate is pretty good

Implementation Choices

• As matter of practice, constant is unknown, so we can't choose optimal bandwidth
• Kernel also affects outcome, but enters into constant and not rate, so less important overall
• In this setting, for local linear regression estimator, Imbens and Kalyanaraman (2012) describe estimator for the constant term
  • Relies on preliminary higher order local polynomial to get higher derivatives, variance parameters, etc
• This is the default in most older RD software and still probably a tolerable default for point estimates
• Cross-validation with MSE criterion also feasible
• That said, why use method optimal for exactly 2 derivatives, instead of more or less?
  • Minimax MSE with \(d\) derivatives \(\propto n^{\frac{-2d}{2d+1}}\)
• Probable reason: 2 derivatives is class for which local linear regression optimal
  • Procedure simple, transparent, visualizable, has connections to familiar OLS
• Higher order rates require methods with complications or drawbacks
  • Higher order kernels may have worrisome properties like some negative weights
  • Higher order polynomials may overextrapolate (though reducing bandwidth should help with this)
• Adaptive estimators have serious advantage of achieving optimal rates without needing to know order
  • But methods appear complicated, computationally challenging, and since not widely used, lack reliable software implementations and communities of practice to address possibly unintended sources of fragility
• In practice you are expected to report sensitivity analyses to bandwidth, and maybe order of polynomial and/or choice of kernel anyway
  • If results are not that sensitive to choice, optimality probably not main concern

Inference

• If goal is inference rather than point estimation, criterion changes entirely and so do procedures
• MSE equalizes weight placed on variance and squared bias, while inference prioritizes coverage
• With MSE-optimal bandwidth, local linear estimator converges in distribution to a normal at rate \(\sqrt{nh}\)
  • \(\sqrt{nh}(\widehat{\beta}(r)-E[Y|R=r])=\sqrt{nh}(\widehat{\beta}(r)-E[\widehat{\beta}(r)])+\sqrt{nh}(E[\widehat{\beta}(r)]-E[Y|R=r])\)
  • Because bias term is size \(h^2\) and optimal \(h\propto n^{-1/5}\), scaled bias term is \(O(1)\): doesn't disappear in large samples
  • Limiting normal distribution has non-zero mean!
• Given that bias is unknown, can't just rely on variance estimates
• Option 1: undersmoothing: choose smaller than MSE-optimal bandwidth \(h=o(n^{-1/5})\)
  • Bias term then asymptotically negligible, at cost of slower MSE overall
  • Intervals wider since \(\sqrt{nh}\) scaling is slower if h is
  • Asymptotically negligible doesn't mean ignorable in small samples: may have poor coverage
  • Bandwidth choice methods become inapplicable
• Option 2: use MSE-optimal bandwidth (as in Imbens and Kalyanaraman (2012)), but estimate and correct for for the bias term in CI
  • Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2014) propose an estimate, but note that bias correction itself has variability
  • They therefore propose an adjusted variance estimator taking into account all terms
  • With implementation in rdrobust R/Stata libraries and extensive documentation and extensions, may be most popular and widely applicable default implementation

Impossibility/Optimality of Inference

• Above inference procedures assumed local polynomial estimation and sufficient derivatives to estimate conditional expectation and its derivatives, to compute bandwidth and bias corrections
• How do assumptions relate to properties of inference?
  • May compare procedures by (expected) length of (valid) confidence intervals, or power of tests
• Under assumptions needed for identification of RD, no \(1-\alpha\) confidence interval can have finite expected length (Bertanha and Moreira (2020))
  • This is true even if we assume infinitely differentiable functions
  • Manifestation of fact that without quantifying size, impossible to distinguish a discontinuity from a continuous and smooth but arbitrarily fast change
  • Implication is that procedures like Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2014) which estimate degree of smoothness must under-cover for some bad distributions in finite samples, even if for any fixed function they eventually converge
• Stronger model conditions can restore possibility of CIs with uniform coverage: an explicit upper bound on derivatives
• Armstrong and Kolesár (2018), Armstrong and Kolesár (2020) show that with upper bound \(p^{th}\) derivative, can upper bound bias of local estimator over all functions in class obeying the bound, construct critical values which provide \(1-\alpha\) coverage even in worst case
  • If \(\widehat{\tau}^{RD}\) has worst case bias \(B(\widehat{\tau}^{RD})\) over class \(\mathcal{F}_M\), and standard error \(\widehat{se}(\hat{\tau}^{RD})\), CI is \(\widehat{\tau}^{RD}\pm cv_\alpha(B(\widehat{\tau}^{RD}/\widehat{se}(\hat{\tau}^{RD}))(\widehat{se}(\hat{\tau}^{RD}))\) where \(cv_\alpha(b)\) is critical value of \(|N(b,1)|\) distribution
  • Derive max bias for function classes such as assuming slope near cutoff bounded by \(M\), or that \(|f(r)-f(c)-f^\prime(c)|\leq \frac{M}{2}(r-c)^2\) for local linear with some choice of kernel and bandwidth, and other weighting estimators
  • You provide your intuition on how large slope/curvature could be in worst case
  • Show that optimal choices for CI length, power, MSE, all fairly similar in worst case, and little scope for improvement by adapting
  • Implemented in R library RDHonest

Alternate Perspective: Bayes

• Bayesian estimation provides a way to express substantive knowledge about features of model in terms of average case properties instead of worst case belief
  • Express these as a prior distribution over functions on either side of cutoff
• To allow flexible shape with values near cutoff informed mainly by local data, use nonparametric prior like Gaussian Process (Williams and Rasmussen (2006))
  • Belief about conditional mean at any points \(r_1,r_2,...\) is multivariate Gaussian, with covariance based on distance
  • Choices of covariance can express beliefs about smoothness and degree of information sharing
• Branson et al. (2019) describe implementation and properties for use in RD
• Uncertainty expressed as posterior distribution not same as a confidence interval, though can sometimes be shown to converge (Vaart and Zanten (2008))
• Properties encoded by prior (and likelihood) for shape of function may be subtle, so simulate to make sure prior focuses on plausible shapes
• Not widely used but probably should be…

Visualization

• All RD estimates should be accompanied by a plot showing function estimates on both sides of the cutoff
• Include both local estimate and function estimates away from the cutoff, as well as intervals if possible
• In sparse data settings, these should overlay a scatterplot of \((R_i,Y_i)\) values to allow comparison of fit to raw data
• With larger sample sizes, may be hard to see much in data, so overlay binscatter instead (Cattaneo et al. (2021))
  • Within narrow \(R\) bins, compute average \(Y\) value, plot for each bin, with width defined by levels or quantiles of \(R\)
  • Usable as nonparametric estimator, but goal is a low-bias high-variance guide to patterns in data, so choose narrow bins that exhibit variability
• Example from Lee (2008) study of incumbency effect on re-election

House Election Wins lead to more wins for party

Eyeballing it: pros and cons

• Visual ability to distinguish slopes of curves from a scatterplot less precise than formal statistical estimates
• But when jump is visually detectable, result is much more impactful and likely to be trusted
• Clear visibility criterion prioritizes size over power: may "miss" results which are well-distinguished with data
• This is arguably a feature, not a bug: to extent that statistical methods rely on manipulable choices, they may "go away" with alternate assumptions on bandwidth, order, etc, and a conservative criterion raises robustness to that
• Visibility also allows assessing other features of data, like variability, curvature, degree of change in these features away from jump
• Expresses visual check on tuning parameter choices (does data start to curve near or far from jump) and "placebo" check on what things look like without a jump
• Visualization choices can impact how striking result appears: raw data very noisy, power low, parametric model very tight, doesn't provide extra checks. In between are undersmoothed methods with low bias: binscatter width interpolates.
• Plot window including just area near cutoff (see it better) vs wider range (assess global properties)
• "Default" is to plot parametric fit and binscatter, with some default bin width, on area wider than window, cut off only if wide R support obscures area near jump
  • May raise or lower this, but people may question your choice

Features of an RD plot that indicate a questionable fit

• Binscatter outliers right near the jump: suggests overfitting
• Parametric curve deviating strongly from binscatter right near discontinuity:
  • Suggests extrapolation is doing a lot of work:
  • Especially bad with quadratic/cubic fits, which can extrapolate curvature from other part of the space to curvature even in another direction near the discontinuity
  • Part of reason why Gelman and Imbens (2019) suggest avoiding RD using higher order polynomials entirely
• Gelman referred to following RD estimate of air pollution on mortality using geographic border where regulations change as a "regression discontinuity disaster"
  • Your goal as an applied researcher is to make sure your work is never highlighted on Gelman's blog…

Comparison of methods: Lee (2008) Incumbency Effect

            #Load RD package containing Lee (2008) incumbency data  suppressWarnings(suppressMessages(library(rddtools))) data(house) #Lee data #Load another package for RD estimation suppressWarnings(suppressMessages(library(rdrobust))) #Calonic0 2014 robust CIs suppressWarnings(suppressMessages(library(RDHonest))) #Arstrong Kolesar robust CIs # Specify x, y, and cutpoint = 0 Dem-Rep vote share house_rdd<-rdd_data(y=house$y,x=house$x,cutpoint=0) # Specify same for format of RDHonest package LEEframe<-data.frame(y=house$y,x=house$x)          

            # OLS estimate in rddtools library, linear with different slope on each side (reg_para <- rdd_reg_lm(rdd_object=house_rdd))          

            ## ### RDD regression: parametric ### ##  Polynomial order:  1  ##  Slopes:  separate  ##  Number of obs: 6558 (left: 2740, right: 3818) ##  ##  Coefficient: ##    Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)     ## D 0.1182314  0.0056799  20.816 < 2.2e-16 *** ## --- ## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1          

            #Estimate MSE- optimal bandwidth on Lee data by Imbens-Kalyanaraman procedure LEEbw<-rdd_bw_ik(house_rdd) # Local linear RD estimate, different slope on each side (LEEnp<-rdd_reg_np(rdd_object=house_rdd,bw=LEEbw))          

            ## ### RDD regression: nonparametric local linear### ##  Bandwidth:  0.2938561  ##  Number of obs: 3200 (left: 1594, right: 1606) ##  ##  Coefficient: ##   Estimate Std. Error z value  Pr(>|z|)     ## D 0.079924   0.009465  8.4443 < 2.2e-16 *** ## --- ## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1          

            # Calonico Cattaneo Titiunik bias corrected estimates and CIs summary(rdrobust(y=house$y,x=house$x,c=0,all = TRUE))          

            ## [1] "Mass points detected in the running variable." ## Call: rdrobust ##  ## Number of Obs.                 6558 ## BW type                       mserd ## Kernel                   Triangular ## VCE method                       NN ##  ## Number of Obs.                 2740         3818 ## Eff. Number of Obs.             789          817 ## Order est. (p)                    1            1 ## Order bias  (q)                   2            2 ## BW est. (h)                   0.136        0.136 ## BW bias (b)                   0.240        0.240 ## rho (h/b)                     0.565        0.565 ## Unique Obs.                    2108         2581 ##  ## ============================================================================= ##         Method     Coef. Std. Err.         z     P>|z|      [ 95% C.I. ]        ## ============================================================================= ##   Conventional     0.064     0.011     5.815     0.000     [0.042 , 0.085]      ## Bias-Corrected     0.059     0.011     5.418     0.000     [0.038 , 0.081]      ##         Robust     0.059     0.013     4.738     0.000     [0.035 , 0.084]      ## =============================================================================          

            ## RD plot with bin-scatter and global quartic polynomial estimates rdplot(y=house$y,x=house$x,c=0,masspoints="off")          

            # Armstrong-Kolesar CI with bound M of 0.4 on second derivative (sclass T), # bandwidth optimized for smallest "Fixed Length Confidence Interval"  RDHonest(y~x,data=LEEframe,kern="triangular",M=0.4,opt.criterion = "FLCI",sclass="T")          

            ## Call: ## RDHonest(formula = y ~ x, data = LEEframe, M = 0.4, kern = "triangular",  ##     opt.criterion = "FLCI", sclass = "T") ##  ##  ## Inference by se.method: ##      Estimate Maximum Bias  Std. Error ## nn 0.07810269  0.005018494 0.008338368 ##  ## Confidence intervals: ## nn    (0.05919947, 0.09700591), (0.0593688, Inf), (-Inf, 0.09683658) ##  ## Bandwidth: 0.2638011 ## Number of effective observations: 645.7353          

Tests and Diagnostics

• Can rerun estimate with "placebo" cutoffs to show size of jump not just due to properties of function
  • Visually, this is what inspection of (bin-)scatter plot is allowing you to assess
• Should run several bandwidths/specifications and present estimates side by side in plot/table
• As analog to balance test showing nothing substantial changes at boundary, you should do RD estimates for baseline covariates to make sure nothing substantial changes at boundary
  • Example balance plots from Zimmerman (2014) from test score discontinuity for college admission show little difference between attributes of students marginally passing and not

Balance test

Density Estimation and Manipulation Test

• Estimate density locally by kernel density estimator: for each \(r\), use (weighted) proportion of \(R_i\)'s in \(h\) neighborhood of \(x\)
  • \(\hat{f}(r)=\frac{1}{nh}\sum_{i=1}^{n}K(\frac{R_i-r}{h})\)
• Compare Histogram: uses proportion over fixed, not rolling neighborhood
• Use jump in density of \(X\) at c as test for manipulation: McCrary (2008) test in most RD packages
  • If jump at cutoff, suggests some units were able to move to just below/above cutoff
• When you do have manipulation, sometimes density difference is informative
  • Bunching estimators (Kleven (2016)) use magnitude of density difference to measure elasticity of response to incentive provided by discontinuity or kink
  • Especially common with taxes, which kink or jump at bracket boundaries

            #Run McCrary test  # Estimates density left and right of cutoff # null is no difference in density LEEtest<-dens_test(LEEnp,plot=FALSE) pvalue<-LEEtest[2] #get p value                      

• Example: Lee (2008) RD study looks fine on density difference: can't reject density same on left/right (p=0.1952)

            #Run McCrary test # Estimates density left and right of cutoff # null is no difference in density dens_test(LEEnp)          

            ##  ##  McCrary Test for no discontinuity of density around cutpoint ##  ## data:  LEEnp ## z-val = 1.2952, p-value = 0.1952 ## alternative hypothesis: Density is discontinuous around cutpoint ## sample estimates: ## Discontinuity  ##     0.1035008          

Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity

• RD can be used to replace random assignment of a treatment in other research designs
• Sometimes above and below cutoff units only treated with some probability
• Instead of \(X=1\{R\geq c\}\) have \(Pr(X=1|R\geq c)>Pr(X=1|R< c)\)
• Sharp jump in probability, but not perfect assignment
  • E.g. Test score > c gives admission to school but not everyone chooses to accept
• Formally identical to Instrumental Variables
  • Discontinuity in \(R\) acts as instrument for \(X\)
• Recall Univariate IV: \(\tau^{IV}=\frac{\rho}{\phi}\)
  • Reduced form \(\rho\) causal effect of instrument on outcome \(Y\)
  • First stage \(\phi\) causal effect of instrument on treatment \(X\)
• Both can be estimated by RD using standard estimators \(\tau^{Fuzzy}=\frac{\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y|R=c+e]-\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[Y|R=c-e]}{\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[X|R=c+e]-\underset{e\searrow 0}{\lim}E[X|R=c-e]}\)
• Exclusion and ignorability of running variable get close to exact as \(R\) approaches \(c\), in the absence of discontinuous direct effects, confounding, or manipulation
• Relevance holds if jump increases probability of treatment \(R\)
• Can interpret as LATE if monotonicity holds

Fuzzy RD: Example

• Ganong and Noel (2020) use administrative scoring rule for HAMP determining which mortgages eligible for principal reduction to measure effects on default
• Not all eligible mortgage contracts adjusted, so fuzzy RD, though many were so first stage strong
• Plot of first stage and reduced form shows many adjustments, tiny change in defaults, and so can see "at a glance" IV estimate must be small

Estimates

Bandwidth choice for Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity

• Since fuzzy RD is ratio of 2 standard RDs, same principles apply
• Minor adjustment: may keep reduced form and first stage bandwidth identical for simplicity, interpretability
• Precise level may adjust based on MSE/coverage criteria for ratio rather than individually: defaults implemented in software
• Possibility of weak IV complicates things when first stage effect small
  • Reduced form as simple weak-IV robust test means showing analyses for this helpful
  • Can do Anderson-Rubin test inversion CIs for formal inference

Bandwidths

Extensions and Alternatives

• Multidimensional RD
  • May have spatial discontinuity, or multi-criterion rule
  • Apply multivariate local regression, aggregate local effects along boundary
• Covariates
  • Adding covariates not needed under continuity, and can be challenging due to slower rates for nonparametric regression
  • As with experiments, can add linear term in baseline ovariates to improve efficiency
• Discrete running variables
  • Sometimes, like with "years of age," \(R_i\) may not have values right next to \(c\)
  • If difference if small relative to a bandwidth choice, can still perform inference
• Donut hole RD
  • If region right by border has some systematic differences, may cut nearby area out and use only further parts as comparison
• RD with inferred discontinuity location
  • Adds measurement error: should avoid using treatment to infer to prevent mechanical correlations
• Multiple cutoffs and extrapolation
  • A single RD measures treatments for one fixed group, but if you have many, you can compare
  • Assuming some smoothness between jumps, or using covariates, can measure associations to predict treatment effect for others
• Difference in Discontinuity
  • Just like DiD, except comparison is an RD, using pre-period as placebo check or to account for jumps at border
• Regression Kink: slope instead of level changes at \(c\)
  • Local linear and higher estimators let you measure change in slope from \(\widehat{\beta}_1\) coefficient
• Calling any difference in means a regression discontinuity
  • If you don't have panel data or an experiment, call your comparison of geographically adjacent regions a "border discontinuity" or your before-after comparison a "regression discontinuity in time"
  • It doesn't make those study designs any better, but maybe somebody will buy it

Conclusions

• Be on the lookout for threshold assignment rules
• If units can't control what side they are on, can use it to measure effect of assignment
  • And if they can you might measure an elasticity
• Sophisticated nonparametric tools exist for estimation and inference
• But nobody will believe you unless you also show them a convincing plot

References

Armstrong, Timothy B, and Michal Kolesár. 2018. "Optimal Inference in a Class of Regression Models." Econometrica 86 (2): 655–83.

———. 2020. "Simple and Honest Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression." Quantitative Economics 11 (1): 1–39.

Bertanha, Marinho, and Marcelo J Moreira. 2020. "Impossible Inference in Econometrics: Theory and Applications." Journal of Econometrics 218 (2): 247–70.

Branson, Zach, Maxime Rischard, Luke Bornn, and Luke W Miratrix. 2019. "A Nonparametric Bayesian Methodology for Regression Discontinuity Designs." Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 202: 14–30.

Calonico, Sebastian, Matias D Cattaneo, and Rocio Titiunik. 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs." Econometrica 82 (6): 2295–2326.

Cattaneo, Matias D., Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng. 2021. "On Binscatter." http://arxiv.org/abs/1902.09608.

Cattaneo, Matias D., Brigham R. Frandsen, and Rocío Titiunik. 2015. "Randomization Inference in the Regression Discontinuity Design: An Application to Party Advantages in the u.s. Senate." Journal of Causal Inference 3 (1): 1–24. https://doi.org/doi:10.1515/jci-2013-0010.

Ganong, Peter, and Pascal Noel. 2020. "Liquidity Versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession." American Economic Review 110 (10): 3100–3138. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181243.

Gelman, Andrew, and Guido Imbens. 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 37 (3): 447–56.

Imbens, Guido, and Karthik Kalyanaraman. 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator." The Review of Economic Studies 79 (3): 933–59.

Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen. 2016. "Bunching." Annual Review of Economics 8: 435–64.

Lee, David S. 2008. "Randomized Experiments from Non-Random Selection in US House Elections." Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 675–97.

Lee, David S, and Thomas Lemieux. 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics." Journal of Economic Literature 48 (2): 281–355.

McCrary, Justin. 2008. "Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test." Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 698–714.

Thistlethwaite, Donald L, and Donald T Campbell. 1960. "Regression-Discontinuity Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex Post Facto Experiment." Journal of Educational Psychology 51 (6): 309.

Tsybakov, Alexandre B. 2009. "Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation." Springer Series in Statistics. Springer.

Vaart, Aad W van der, and J Harry van Zanten. 2008. "Rates of Contraction of Posterior Distributions Based on Gaussian Process Priors." The Annals of Statistics 36 (3): 1435–63.

Williams, Christopher K, and Carl Edward Rasmussen. 2006. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. Vol. 2. 3. MIT press Cambridge, MA.

Zimmerman, Seth D. 2014. "The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students." Journal of Labor Economics 32 (4): 711–54.

Regression Discontinuity Designs In Economics Video

Source: https://donskerclass.github.io/CausalEconometrics/RegressionDiscontinuity.html

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